Vibe Check. 2025 Has Kicked Off, What Storylines are Emerging?
I'm seeing hip hop take notice, investor eyeballs, innovation’s importance, female momentum, piracy threats and a DEI opportunity.
We’re through the first 6 weeks of 2025. It’s easy to get lost in the sauce but if we step back can we begin to see any storylines emerging? How are brands integrating themselves into the zeitgeist?
I’m a subscriber and avid reader of Ana Andjelic’s substack The Sociology of Business. She puts it very well:
“Regardless of the signals available to us in our present, it is much easier for us to explain our past. The real challenge is to detect the mood while it is happening. To answer the question of how to get something to resonate with the atmosphere of the times, we should look for contradictions, inversions, oddities, and coincidences in our culture, society, and economy. They are the indicators that change is ahead.”
Running is Cool
The influence of hip hop videos should not be underestimated. Daniel-Yaw Miller, recently broke out on his own via a Substack called SportsVerse (follow him). He wrote last week on the breakthrough he's noticed from running - notably that it’s cool now. That “cool” label isn’t coming from inside the running sphere, it’s coming from outside of our brand so we know it carries weight.
He writes about a recent post from Gunna showing him out for a run being crewed by friends in cars alongside him. He’s dressed in Adidas. Miller notes:
“The post confirmed a shift I’d noticed in recent weeks in how rappers across the US, the UK, and France suddenly are posting about running, creating content with run clubs, and using the sport to promote upcoming projects.”
The others he noticed were highlighted by French rapper Rilès who just this weekend ran what he called a “live art display” where he ran 24 hours on a treadmill. It was called SURVIVAL RUN. He sold time slot based tickets that all sold out.
Miller’s final line reads:
“There’s no denying that what was once an activity for retirees and bored suburban folk is now well and truly part of the culture.”
Investors Discover Niche Brands
On January 22nd the Business of Fashion dropped an article entitled “Running’s Big Fashion Opportunity”. It was met with so much success that CNN chose to license the article and publish it without a paywall.
Interesting to me was that the credible sources used to speak intelligently on the sport are from new media outlets like Runners Highest and Running Supply that operate via Instagram and Substack. There are no quotes to be found from traditional running media outlets like Runner’s World or Outside. More media disruption.
The BoF article also hits on the success of the obvious niche brands (Bandit, Satisfy, District Vision, and Soar). They note that “a distinct lens or persona is winning vs. the do-it-all brand”. Yep. But I’d go even further and point out several other brands that, while they may get less press, are also bringing a distinct lens and community - Hermanos Kuomori, PYNRS, Saysky, Norda, Tracksmith, Janji, Tabisuke Tabizo.
Speaking of Satisfy, Matt Walsh at TrailMix dove into the cruxy situation at everyone’s darling niche brand. Notably the brand posted a €620k loss in 2022 and by 2024 their debt peaked at €4.6m. However, at the same time, their revenue doubled to €11M AND they just took on €11M in additional investment. Investors are making a 10x bet on the brand and the general running industry tailwind.
I would assume that if investors are willing to place bets on Satisfy they are looking at our other niche brands as well.
Will we see more throughout the year? Who is best positioned to be next?
The Pricing Power of Innovation
Last week, the Business of Fashion published its second running focused article of the year “How Much Does Sneaker Innovation Matter?” (a good cadence of running talk in the wider fashion conversation, right?)
A quote from Victor Ornelas at Fleet Feet sums up the article:
“Ornelas said that other big points of attraction for shoppers walking into a store are colour and “what looks a little disruptive.” When Hoka’s shoes with their stacked — and now widely imitated — midsoles hit the market, for example, they were conversation starters that prompted customers to want to know more about the brand.”
Point being that visible innovation sells shoes whether it’s plates, foams, “clouds”, air pockets or massive stack heights. If we can’t see the innovation does it still sell on the shoe wall?
We just saw Nike release the Pegasus Premium with its highly visible full length air midsole. It sold out quickly. I talked to one veteran shoe guru who said there’s not much to write home about with this shoe but it’s sure made to look like there is. Will this visibility work if it’s all show with no substance?
What if it’s the opposite - a foam technology with tangible durability benefits but doesn’t stand out visually? Norda? Mount to Coast? I’m looking to see how those playout.
Take all of this together with our recent learning that the 6% growth we saw from performance running footwear in 2024 was driven by price increases and not a unit volume increase. Innovation is critically important because it’s one way brands can command those pricing increases.
I should also point out that another way to create pricing power is brand 😉.
Female Momentum
The dust is settling from athlete contract season and women are continuing to lead. Hoka brought several notable women together for a very on-brand announcement that got trail running excited.
Then most recently Nike leaned further into women across sport with their “So Win” spot from the Super Bowl. This is after just dropping a new signature basketball shoe with A’ja Wilson. Women are continuing to be in the conversation and I’m happy to see Nike lean further in as part of their comeback strategy.
What do we see next?
Non-binary athlete Riley Brady just won the women’s field at Black Canyon after also winning at Javelina in November. Could we see a non-binary athlete win Western States?
Risks
A risk I see stems from the sport losing control of the narrative. The threat comes from story poachers with deep pockets and profit-driven motives thieving control of what it means to be a runner. We’re starting to see it. On the back of a once-in-a-century pandemic the public discovered running and it blossomed beautifully via crews, race festivals and interpretations the sport has never seen. A cultural renaissance really. Now we are starting to see Zara, and ironically Nike, regurgitate the signature idiosyncrasies born of this renaissance. Many will say this is just how big companies do things but this piracy sucks the soul out of running and dilutes its brand. I hope I’m wrong but it could be a trend at this point.
Zara’s latest fast fashion ripoff. This time victimizing Soar and their collab with Norda.
Nike’s much talked about ripoff of Satisfy.
Opportunities
Last but definitely not least is the DEI conversation which is being absolutely gutted on a national level. It’s horrible to see so much work being destroyed across so many areas from transgender athletes to hiring policies. So who is going to step up? When the moment is giving companies an easy out the opportunity to double down is NOW.
I noted that Riley Brady’s commanding wins the past few months have setup a potentially massive moment at Western States. Sponsor Riley now please. Lulu? Hoka? Who steps up?
Carolina Rubio MacWright and Touching Land are looking for a brand partner on an initiative to spread awareness/education around immigrant rights through running via run crews, retailers and races. It’s very early but they have two dates set so far in Seattle and Hailey, Idaho. This can help make running a safe space while deepening relationships among crews, retailers and races around the country. If you’re a brand, crew, retailer or race get in touch with Carolina and Touching Land via the link above.
Here’s a glimpse:
Thank you for reading and as always let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Lookout for a new Guest Pace interview coming this Thursday. It’s an inspiring one.
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I think the idea of seeing innovation helps a product stand out. However from a retail or sales perspective it also helps a lot for the salesperson to have something to talk about. I think ON has had great success because they seem to be investing in shoe trials more than most other brands. This is so crucial for converting customers.
Will be interesting to see how Satisfy’s core customer reacts to the growth in terms of who ends up wearing it. It’s a fine line and I am interested to see how they approach the challenge of growth over “selling out” . For the next up I could see Hermanos Koumori getting some funding and I’m not sure If Bandit needs it but they are a good contender.
Thanks for taking the time to write !
If I were still in manufacturing running gear, my 'what's next for 2025' would be: Perseverance Furthers. The I Ching made a timeless point: sometimes the best move is to just keep doing what you're doing. The hubbub around brilliant new ideas often exists in a media/creative bubble with minimal relevance. Branding is sometimes just like running - no magic button; keep stacking those bricks!
And someone should indeed sponsor Riley Brady.
And the Nike Super Bowl ad was by far the best of the lot - it was so good I re-watched it this morning - even while NPR did not mention it in their stupid review which was focussed on political meaning, which few people are excited to hear more about. An hour-long video of Nike ads would be worthwhile - they’ve been killing it for decades - and they all were done in about the same style. Don’t be deceived - repetition is good.